Forecasting 3G mobile subscription in China: A study based on stochastic frontier analysis and a Bass diffusion model

Jinyang Lim, Changi Nam, Seongcheol Kim, Hongjai Rhee, Euehun Lee and Hongkyu Lee

Telecommunications Policy, 2012, vol. 36, issue 10, 858-871

Abstract: This paper forecasts 3G mobile subscription in mainland China while incorporating regional disparity. First, using stochastic frontier analysis, this paper tries to measure the relative market potential of 2G mobile service in 31 Chinese provinces. Second, this paper estimates diffusion parameters, including innovation coefficient, imitation coefficient and potential market size, of 31 provinces from 2G data. Then, this paper forecasts 3G mobile subscription using the original Bass model. In particular, this paper uses the market potential of each province in a modified Bass model in order to estimate the maximum level of 3G subscription. Finally, the paper presents meaningful implications for policy makers and mobile network operators in China.

Keywords: China; 3G mobile telecommunications; Subscriber forecasting; Stochastic frontier analysis; Bass diffusion model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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DOI: 10.1016/j.telpol.2012.07.016

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