Stochasticity, heterogeneity, and variance in longevity in human populations

Nienke Hartemink, Trifon I. Missov and Hal Caswell

Theoretical Population Biology, 2017, vol. 114, issue C, 107-116

Abstract: Inter-individual variance in longevity (or any other demographic outcome) may arise from heterogeneity or from individual stochasticity. Heterogeneity refers to differences among individuals in the demographic rates experienced at a given age or stage. Stochasticity refers to variation due to the random outcome of demographic rates applied to individuals with the same properties. The variance due to individual stochasticity can be calculated from a Markov chain description of the life cycle. The variance due to heterogeneity can be calculated from a multistate model that incorporates the heterogeneity. We show how to use this approach to decompose the variance in longevity into contributions from stochasticity and heterogeneous frailty for male and female cohorts from Sweden (1751–1899), France (1816–1903), and Italy (1872–1899), and also for a selection of period data for the same countries.

Keywords: Individual stochasticity; Heterogeneous frailty; Variance; Longevity; Age–frailty classified matrix model; ​Gamma-Gompertz–Makeham (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:thpobi:v:114:y:2017:i:c:p:107-116

DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2017.01.001

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