Projections of health indicators for chronic disease under a semi-Markov assumption

Mathilde Wanneveich, Jacqmin-Gadda, Hélène, Dartigues, Jean-François and Pierre Joly

Theoretical Population Biology, 2018, vol. 119, issue C, 83-90

Abstract: Chronic diseases are a growing public health problem due to the population aging. Their economic, social and demographic burden will worsen in years to come. Up to now, the method used to provide projections and assess the future disease burden makes a non-homogeneous Markov assumption in an illness–death model. Both age and calendar year have been taken into account in all parameter estimations, but the time spent with the disease was not considered.

Keywords: Multi-states model; semi-Markov; Projection; Dementia; Epidemiology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:thpobi:v:119:y:2018:i:c:p:83-90

DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2017.11.006

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