Examination of Taiwan's travel and tourism market cycle through a two-period Markov regime-switching model

Pao-Peng Hsu

Tourism Management, 2017, vol. 63, issue C, 201-208

Abstract: This study analyzes the Taiwan travel and tourism (T&T) market cycle. According to data of the weighted Taiwan tourism stock index from January 1997 to August 2015, the two-period Markov regime-switching model identifies two distinct regimes of the T&T cycle and incorporates a specific set of mean and variance parameters for each period to control for the structural changes in Taiwan's T&T market. The effect of China visitor arrivals to Taiwan on the T&T market is also verified. The empirical findings offer essential information and policy implications for Taiwan's government tourism policymakers and business managers.

Keywords: Weighted tourism stock index; Two-period Markov regime-switching model; Business cycle (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:touman:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:201-208

DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2017.06.011

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