Microtransit deployment portfolio management using simulation-based scenario data upscaling

Srushti Rath, Bingqing Liu, Gyugeun Yoon and Joseph Y.J. Chow

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2023, vol. 169, issue C

Abstract: Due to transportation technologies having such heterogeneous impacts on different communities, there needs to be better tools to evaluate the deployment of emerging technologies with limited data. Microtransit is one such technology. We propose a novel framework based on existing methods to “upscale” the limited data available so that further decision-support analysis and forecast modeling can be achieved where none could prior. The framework involves expanding an initial day-to-day adjustment process to handle both first/last mile access trips and direct trips, updating a within-day microtransit simulator with a parametric design, and developing a synthetic scenario generation process. The framework is tested in a case study with data from Via for Salt Lake City, Austin, Cupertino, Sacramento, Columbus, and Jersey City showing an average 18% ridership error for the market equilibrium models. Data from four of those cities are upscaled to 326 synthetic scenarios to estimate forecast models for ridership and fleet vehicle-miles-traveled using Lasso regularization. While the models have root mean squared error (RMSE) values between 37-45% of the averages, using only four cities’ data alone would not produce any forecast model at all. The results show that variables with statistically significant positive impact on ridership and negative impact on vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT) include zones with more transit stations, higher employment, but lower “employment density × fixed fare”. The models are then used to identify two alternative portfolios with similar fleet VMT as the original four cities but are forecast to have up to 1.9 times the ridership.

Keywords: Microtransit; Portfolio management; Scenario generation; Simulation; Emerging technology deployment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856423000046
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:transa:v:169:y:2023:i:c:s0965856423000046

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional
https://shop.elsevie ... _01_ooc_1&version=01

DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2023.103584

Access Statistics for this article

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice is currently edited by John (J.M.) Rose

More articles in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().