A multi-stage stochastic program for evacuation management under tornado track uncertainty

Suleyman Karabuk and Hasan Manzour

Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 2019, vol. 124, issue C, 128-151

Abstract: This paper introduces a multi-stage optimization model that identifies an optimal evacuation plan in response to spatial-temporal weather-events with track uncertainty. We establish how a multi-stage model can effectively take into account track uncertainty to generate a better evacuation plan. In particular, we study evacuation management for hazardous convective weather events (e.g., tornadoes) that cause hundreds of fatalities in the US every year. The common practice against a tornado threat is shelter-in-place. In our computational results, we quantify the benefits and costs of evacuation as a response policy in comparison to the status quo policy, i.e., shelter-in-place.

Keywords: Evacuation management; Stochastic programming; Multi-stage decision model; Scenario tree; Linear programming (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:transe:v:124:y:2019:i:c:p:128-151

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DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2019.02.005

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