On the value of distribution tail in the valuation of travel time variability

Zhaoqi Zang, Richard Batley, Xiangdong Xu and David Z.W. Wang

Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 2024, vol. 190, issue C

Abstract: Extensive empirical studies show that the long distribution tail of users’ travel time in transportation systems and the corresponding unexpected delay can have much more serious consequences than expected or moderate delay. However, the unexpected delay has received limited attention in recent studies of the valuation of travel time variability. As a complement to current valuation research, this paper proposes the concept of the value of travel time distribution tail, which quantifies the value that travelers place on reducing the unexpected delay for hedging against travel time variability. Methodologically, we define the summation of all unexpected delays as the unreliability area to quantify travel time distribution tail and show that it is a key element of two well-defined measures accounting for unreliable aspects of travel time. We then formally derive the value of distribution tail, show that it is distinct from the more established value of reliability (VOR), and combine it and the VOR in an overall value of travel time variability (VOV). We prove theoretically that the VOV exhibits diminishing marginal benefit in terms of the traveler’s punctuality requirements under a mild condition. This implies that it may be economically inefficient for travelers to blindly pursue a higher probability of not being late. We then proceed to develop the concept of the travel time variability ratio, which gives the implicit cost of the punctuality requirement imposed on any given trip. Numerical examples reveal that the cost of travel time distribution tail can account for more than 10 % of the trip cost, such that its omission could introduce non-trivial bias into route choice models and transportation appraisal more generally.

Keywords: Distribution tail; Unexpected delay; Value of travel time reliability; Travel time variability; Scheduling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1366554524002862
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:transe:v:190:y:2024:i:c:s1366554524002862

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600244/bibliographic
http://www.elsevier. ... 600244/bibliographic

DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2024.103695

Access Statistics for this article

Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review is currently edited by W. Talley

More articles in Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().