 The effects of air transport mobility and global connectivity on viral transmission: Lessons learned from Covid-19 and its variantsYoungran Choi, Li Zou and Martin Dresner Transport Policy, 2022, vol. 127, issue C, 22-30 Abstract: We investigate the impact of air travel mobility and global connectivity on viral transmission by tracing the announced arrival time of COVID-19 and its major variants in countries around the world. We find that air travel intensity to a country, “effective distance” as measured by international air traffic, is generally a significant predictor for the announced viral arrival time. The level of healthcare infrastructure in a country is less important at predicting the initial transmission and detection time of a virus. A policy variable, notably the percentage reduction of total inbound seats in response to a viral outbreak, is largely ineffective at delaying viral transmission and discovery time. These findings suggest that air network connectivity is a major contributor to the speed of viral transmission. However, government attempts to delay viral transmission by reducing air network connectivity after the virus is first discovered are largely ineffective. Keywords: COVID-19; Viral transmission; Air travel network; Air mobility (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:trapol:v:127:y:2022:i:c:p:22-30 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2022.08.009 Access Statistics for this article Transport Policy is currently edited by Y. Hayashi More articles in Transport Policy from Elsevier |
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