Growth in international commodity prices, the terms of trade, and GDP per capita: A case study of Vietnam

Markus Brueckner and Kien Nguyen
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Markus Brueckner

CAMA Working Papers from Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University

Abstract: The Vietnamese economy is characterized by a high degree of international trade openness and a relatively low GDP share of net-exports. This paper examines the effect of growth in the terms of trade, and more specifically, in international commodity prices, on Vietnam's GDP per capita growth. The paper finds that, during 2000-2014, growth in the terms of trade contributed positively to Vietnam's GDP per capita growth but the effect is not large: less than one-tenth of Vietnam’s GDP per capita growth was due to growth in its terms of trade. The paper argues that the relatively small effect of growth in the terms of trade on GDP per capita growth is due to a low GDP share of net-exports. Econometric model estimates show that transitional convergence accounted for about half of Vietnam's GDP per capita growth during 2000-2014.

Pages: 25 pages
Date: 2016-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int, nep-sea and nep-tra
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Working Paper: Growth in International Commodity Prices, the Terms of Trade, and GDP per capita: A Case Study of Vietnam (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-54

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