Renewable energy projections for climate change mitigation: An analysis of uncertainty and errors

M. Indra al Irsyada, Anthony Halog and Rabindra Nepal

CAMA Working Papers from Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University

Abstract: Failures of countries in setting and achieving renewable energy targets are prevalent, raising uncertainty about the overall contribution of renewable energy to global emission reductions. Lack of policy and incorrect modelling analysis are among the sources of the failures. Thus understanding these two sources is crucial to improve confidence about renewables. We assess errors in the projections of renewable energy capacity and production in the United States and European Union countries, which have high commitments to green energy supply. Our results show that solar energy has the lowest uncertainty due to having the most achievable projections of capacity and production. On the other hand, other renewables may entail attractive policies, and further research is needed related to advancing reliable technology and accurate weather predictions. Our findings also provide ranges of projection uncertainty of six renewable energy technologies and, at the same time, draw attention to ways to rectify the dominant errors in the renewable energy projections.

Keywords: Projection error; commitment; technical issues; modeling and policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 19 pages
Date: 2017-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env and nep-reg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/fil ... syad_halog_nepal.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Renewable energy projections for climate change mitigation: An analysis of uncertainty and errors (2019)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:een:camaaa:2017-74

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CAMA Working Papers from Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Cama Admin ().