Merchandise exports and economic growth: multivariate time series analysis for the United Arab Emirates

Athanasia S. Kalaitzi and Trevor W. Chamberlain

LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library

Abstract: This paper examines the validity of the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over the period 1975–2012, using a neoclassical production function augmented with merchandise exports and imports of goods and services. The study applies the Johansen cointegration technique and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) regression to confirm the existence of a long-run relationship between exports and economic growth, while the multivariate Granger causality test is applied to examine the direction of the short-run causality. In addition, the existence of long-run causality is investigated by applying a modified version of the Wald test in an augmented vector autoregressive model. The Johansen test and DOLS results confirm the existence of a long-run relationship between exports and economic growth. In addition, the study provides evidence to support the validity of the ELG hypothesis in the short-run, while no long-run causality is found to exist.

Keywords: economic growth; Exports; Granger causality; UAE (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 L81 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20 pages
Date: 2020-02-23
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara and nep-int
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

Published in Journal of Applied Economics, 23, February, 2020, 23(1), pp. 163 - 182. ISSN: 1514-0326

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ehl:lserod:103781

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