The validity of the export-led growth hypothesis: some evidence from the GCC

Athanasia Stylianou Kalaitzi and Trevor William Chamberlain

LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library

Abstract: This study investigates the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis (ELG) in five GCC countries, namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The study uses an augmented production function and annual time series data over the period 1975-2016. For the estimation of the models, the Johansen cointegration test is employed to test the existence of a long-run relationship between growth and exports. In addition, the multivariate Granger causality test in a vector autoregressive model framework and a modified version of the Wald test are applied to examine the direction of the short-run and long-run causality respectively. The empirical results provide evidence to support the validity of the ELG hypothesis in the short-run for the UAE, while the converse is true for Bahrain. In addition, a bi-directional causality exists between exports and growth in the case of Kuwait. In the long-run, the validity of the ELG is confirmed in the case of Bahrain, while economic growth causes exports in the case of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: causality; economic growth; exports; GCC (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 F43 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22 pages
Date: 2021-02-17
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara and nep-int
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Published in Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 17, February, 2021, 30(2), pp. 224 - 245. ISSN: 0963-8199

Downloads: (external link)
http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/106586/ Open access version. (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ehl:lserod:106586

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library LSE Library Portugal Street London, WC2A 2HD, U.K.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by LSERO Manager ().