The private and external costs of Germany’s nuclear phase-out

Stephen Jarvis, Olivier Deschenes and Akshaya Jha

LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library

Abstract: Many countries have phased out nuclear power in response to concerns about nuclear waste and the risk of nuclear accidents. This paper examines the shutdown of more than half of the nuclear production capacity in Germany after the Fukushima accident in 2011. We use hourly data on power plant operations and a machine learning approach to estimate the impacts of the phase-out policy. We find that reductions in nuclear electricity production were offset primarily by increases in coal-fired production and net electricity imports. Our estimates of the social cost of the phase-out range from €3 to €8 billion per year. The majority of this cost comes from the increased mortality risk associated with exposure to the local air pollution emitted when burning fossil fuels. Policymakers would have to significantly overestimate the risk or cost of a nuclear accident to conclude that the benefits of the phase-out exceed its social costs. We discuss the likely role of behavioral biases in this setting, and highlight the importance of ensuring that policymakers and the public are informed about the health effects of local air pollution.

JEL-codes: C53 Q41 Q53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
Date: 2022-06-14
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big, nep-ene, nep-env and nep-hea
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Published in Journal of the European Economic Association, 14, June, 2022, 20(3), pp. 1311 - 1346. ISSN: 1542-4766

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http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/113634/ Open access version. (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: The Private and External Costs of Germany’s Nuclear Phase-Out (2022)
Working Paper: The Private and External Costs of Germany's Nuclear Phase-Out (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ehl:lserod:113634

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