Examining insensitivity to probability in evidence‐based communication of relative risks: the role of affect and communication format

Claire Louise Heard and Tim Rakow

LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library

Abstract: Affect can influence judgments of event riskiness and use of risk-related information. Two studies (Ns: 85 and 100) examined the insensitivity-to-probability effect—where people discount probability information when scenarios are affect-rich—applying it to evidence-informed risk communication. We additionally investigated whether this effect is moderated by format, based on predictions from the evaluability and pattern-recognition literatures, suggesting that graphical formats may attenuate insensitivity to probability. Participants completed a prior beliefs questionnaire (Study 1), and risk perception booklet (both studies) that presented identical statistical information about the relative risks associated with two scenarios—one with an affect-rich outcome, the other an affect-poorer outcome. In Study 1, this was presented graphically. In Study 2, information was presented in one of three formats: written, tabular, or graphical. Participants provided their perceptions of the risk for each scenario at a range of risk-levels. The affect-rich scenario was perceived as higher in risk, and, importantly, despite presenting identical relative risk information in both scenarios, was associated with a reduced sensitivity to probability information (both studies). These differences were predicted by participants’ prior beliefs concerning the scenario events (Study 1) and were larger for the single-item written format than graphical format (Study 2). The findings illustrate that insensitivity to probability information can occur in evidence-informed risk communications and highlight how communication format can moderate this effect. This interplay between affect and format therefore reflects an important consideration for information designers and researchers.

Keywords: affect; information format; insensitivity-to-probability effect; risk communication; risk perception; sensitivity to probabilities; PhD studentship/Winton Fund (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 15 pages
Date: 2022-10-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp and nep-rmg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Published in Risk Analysis, 1, October, 2022, 42(10), pp. 2145 - 2159. ISSN: 0272-4332

Downloads: (external link)
http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/113810/ Open access version. (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ehl:lserod:113810

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library LSE Library Portugal Street London, WC2A 2HD, U.K.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by LSERO Manager ().