If you’re so smart: John Maynard Keynes and currency speculation in the interwar years

Olivier Accominotti and David Chambers

LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library

Abstract: This article explores the risks and returns to currency speculation during the 1920s and 1930s. We study the performance of two well-known technical trading strategies (carry and momentum) and compare them with that of a fundamentals-based trader: John Maynard Keynes. Technical strategies were highly profitable during the 1920s and even outperformed Keynes. In the 1930s, however, both technical strategies and Keynes performed relatively poorly. While our results reveal the existence of profitable opportunities for currency traders in the interwar years, they suggest that such profits were necessary compensation for enduring the substantial risks that all strategies entailed.

Keywords: carry; momentum; foreign exchange; currency markets; currency crises (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 G14 G15 N22 N24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-06-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his, nep-hpe and nep-pke
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Published in Journal of Economic History, 1, June, 2016, 76(2), pp. 342 - 386. ISSN: 0022-0507

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Journal Article: If You're So Smart: John Maynard Keynes and Currency Speculation in the Interwar Years (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ehl:lserod:64722

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