Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized. Part two: the premise-based approach

Franz Dietrich and Christian List

LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library

Abstract: How can several individuals’ probability functions on a given σσ -algebra of events be aggregated into a collective probability function? Classic approaches to this problem usually require ‘event-wise independence’: the collective probability for each event should depend only on the individuals’ probabilities for that event. In practice, however, some events may be ‘basic’ and others ‘derivative’, so that it makes sense first to aggregate the probabilities for the former and then to let these constrain the probabilities for the latter. We formalize this idea by introducing a ‘premise-based’ approach to probabilistic opinion pooling, and show that, under a variety of assumptions, it leads to linear or neutral opinion pooling on the ‘premises’.

JEL-codes: J1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-04-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mic
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Published in Social Choice and Welfare, 10, April, 2017, 48(4), pp. 787-814. ISSN: 0176-1714

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Related works:
Journal Article: Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized. Part two: the premise-based approach (2017)
Working Paper: Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized. Part two: The premise-based approach (2017)
Working Paper: Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized. Part two: The premise-based approach (2017)
Working Paper: Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized. Part two: The premise-based approach (2017)
Working Paper: Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized Part two: The premise-based approach (2014)
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