Index of perceived in ation in Poland

Aleksandra Halka and Tomasz Łyziak

No 5595, EcoMod2013 from EcoMod

Abstract: Inflation perceived by consumers may differ from official statistics due to different baskets of goods and services both variables capture and by consumer loss aversion to price increases. Those effects, suggested by the Prospect Theory, are confirmed in many empirical studies, showing that consumers are substantially in uenced by prices of frequent purchases and price increases are perceived more strongly than price decreases. Following those observations, particularly useful in interpreting a jump of in ation perception in some of the EMU economies after the euro introduction, an alternative price index, i.e. Index of Perceived Inflation, was proposed (Brachinger 2003, 2006). The role of price changes of frequently bought goods and services in determining consumer opinions on price changes was also significant in Poland, especially after its accession to the EU. To assess whether this effect is of a systematic nature, in this paper we propose different indices of price changes of frequently bought goods and services in Poland, including the Index of Perceived Inflation. Then we evaluate those indices vs. CPI inflation in terms of their impact on consumer inflation perception, as proxied with survey data. The results suggest that Polish consumers observe a relatively wide range of goods and services, however both factors suggested by the Prospect Theory seem to influence their opinions on evolution of prices in the past. Having the measure of perceived inflation that seems more adequate than current CPI inflation on the one hand and survey-based measures of perceived inflation scaled with respect to the trend of CPI inflation on the other hand, we use it as a scaling factor to derive a probability measure of consumer inflation expectations in Poland. Then we compare selected features of this measure with respective results based on the measures of consumer inflation expectations quantified in a standard manner. See above See above

Keywords: Poland; Monetary issues; Impact and scenario analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-06-21
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ekd:004912:5595

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