Evolución de la demanda de importaciones de México: 1940-2009

José Romero ()
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José Romero: El Colegio de México

No 2010-03, Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos from El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to specify and estimate an aggregate import demand function for México, and to discuss the implications of the results. Estimation is based on quarterly data for real imports, real GDP and relative prices over the period 1940-2009. In our empirical analysis of the aggregate import demand function for México, cointegration and error correction technique have been used. This analysis suggests that a cointegrating relationship exists between these variables. In our study we got more than one cointegrating relationship among these variables. More than one cointegrating relationship means more stability in the system. We also found that a structural change happen after 1982 so we estimated two demand functions one for each period. Our econometric estimates of the aggregate import demand function for México suggest that import demand in the second period is overwhelming dominated by GDP and weekly affected by relative prices. This turns fiscal and monetary policies infective to regulate the business cycle.

Keywords: México; importaciones; exportaciones; propensión a importar (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F02 F14 F15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:emx:ceedoc:2010-03

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