Trade and Jobs: Can We Trust the Models?

Dean Baker and David Rosnick

CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs from Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR)

Abstract: This paper notes the poor track record of CGE models like the ones used by the Peterson Institute and the International Trade Commission in projecting the changes in patterns of trade following recent trade deals. These models failed to project the large rise in the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico following the implementation of NAFTA or with South Korea following the implementation of KORUS. Past research has shown that these models also failed to correctly identify the winning and losing industries in trade with Mexico following NAFTA. This analysis shows that the ITC model similarly failed to identify winning and losing industries following the implementation of the KORUS.

JEL-codes: F F1 F10 F4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 11 pages
Date: 2016-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int and nep-pke
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:epo:papers:2016-05

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