Transport Connectivity in Northeast Asia: in the Context of Trans-Eurasian Transport

Ryuichi Shibasaki, Hirofumi Arai, Kentaro Nishimura and Takuya Yamaguchi
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Ryuichi Shibasaki: School of Engineering, the University of Tokyo
Kentaro Nishimura: Graduate School of Engineering, the University of Tokyo
Takuya Yamaguchi: Graduate School of Engineering, the University of Tokyo

No 2103, Discussion papers from ERINA - Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia

Abstract: As China has promoted the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) since 2014 and some CIS countries including Russia established the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in 2015, trans-Eurasian land transport has gained attention. Under this background, this paper examines two questions. The first question is how significantly the recent strategic policies such as BRI and EAEU could shift container cargo from maritime shipping to land transport. The other is how much the shift could affect individual countries and regions in Northeast Asia. To answer these questions, the authors estimate their impacts on cargo volume using the intermodal network simulation model. The simulation results indicate that the cargo volume shifted would be about 10 percent of the total container flows between Asia and Europe, under our assumptions. Although land transport can potentially increase cargo volume several times its current level, maritime shipping will remain the dominant mode in intercontinental cargo transport. In addition, the simulation reveals possible negative impacts on the Primorye region of Russia and Mongolia, while the shift will advance.

Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2021-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-cmp and nep-ure
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eri:dpaper:2103

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