Quantifying the Beauty Contest: Density Inflation-Forecasts of Professional Japanese Forecasters

Yosuke Takeda

ESRI Discussion paper series from Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)

Abstract: The paper aims at quantifying the higher-order expectations that Keynes (1936) compared to the beauty contest, applying a measure of relative entropy to the Japanese ESP Forecast Survey data during the deflationary period. We conclude that during the deflationary period from June 2009 to April 2010 and from April 2010 to February 2011, professional Japanese forecasters faced the Keynesian beauty contest, in which average expectations dominate agents’ expectations.

Pages: 30 pages
Date: 2014-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.esri.go.jp/jp/archive/e_dis/e_dis309/e_dis309.pdf (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 500 Can't connect to www.esri.go.jp:80 (No such host is known. )

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:esj:esridp:309

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in ESRI Discussion paper series from Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by HORI nobuko ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).