Global Value Chains, Trade Shocks and Jobs: An Application to Brexit

Hylke Vandenbussche, William Connell Garcia and Wouter Simons

No 663605, Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven from KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven

Abstract: We develop a network trade model with country-sector level input-output linkages. It includes (1) domestic and global value chain linkages between all country-sectors, (2) direct as well as indirect shipments (via other sectors and countries) to a final destination, (3) value added rather than gross trade flows. The model is solved analytically and we use the sectoral World Input Output Database (WIOD) to predict the impact of Brexit for every individual EU country by aggregating up the country-sector effects. In contrast to other studies, we find EU-27 job losses to be substantially higher than hitherto believed as a result of the closely integrated EU network structure. Upstream country-sectors stand to lose more from Brexit due to their network centrality in Europe.

Keywords: JEL C530; JEL D570; JEL F170; JEL F140; global value chains; trade shocks; jobs; employment; Brexit (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-01-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int and nep-net
Note: paper number No. 7473
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Published in CESifo Working Paper

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Related works:
Journal Article: Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: An application to Brexit (2022)
Working Paper: Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: An application to Brexit (2020)
Working Paper: Global Value Chains, Trade Shocks and Jobs: An Application to Brexit (2019)
Working Paper: Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: an application to Brexit (2019)
Working Paper: Global Value Chains, Trade Shocks And Jobs: An Application to Brexit (2017)
Working Paper: Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: an application to Brexit (2017)
Working Paper: Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: an application to Brexit (2017)
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