Interim Employment and a Leading Indicator for the Belgian Labour Market

Anneleen Peeters

Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven from KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven

Abstract: This paper focuses on the construction of a leading indicator for the Belgian labour market based on labour market variables. It is shown that our employment indicator constructed from monthly data on interim work and business failures: (1) resembles quite well the cyclical pattern of observed employment in Belgium; (2) performs not significantly better when product market variables are added; (3) is a better predictor of the cycles in the labour market compared to existing leading indicators for the product market. Furthermore, it was found that even more accurate forecasts of future employment could be derived if information on the past behaviour of total employment (captured by an AR(2)-process) was added to our constructed leading indicator. But this last specification loses its leading character due to long publication delays for the employment data.

Date: 1998-03
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ete:ceswps:ces9823

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