Moody Oil - What is Driving the Crude Oil Price?

Filippo Lechthaler and Lisa Leinert ()
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Lisa Leinert: ETH Zurich, Switzerland

No 12/168, CER-ETH Economics working paper series from CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich

Abstract: The unparalleled surge of the crude oil price after 2003 has triggered a heated scientific and public debate about its ultimate causes. Unexpected demand growth particularly from emerging economies appears to be the most prominently supported reason among academics. We study the price dynamics after 2003 in the global crude oil market using a structural VAR model. We account for structural breaks and approximate market expectations using a time series for media sentiment in order to contribute to the existing literature. We and that forward-looking demand activities rather than demand arising from current needs have played an important role for the run-up in the price of crude oil after 2003. We additionally and that emerging economies have not majorly contributed to the price surge

Keywords: Oil Price; Spot Market; Futures Market; Fundamentals; Speculation; Financialization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 D8 E3 Q41 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2012-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa and nep-ene
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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