Lockdown policies and the dynamics of a pandemic: foresight, rebounds and optimality

Hubert Kempf () and Stéphane Rossignol

No 23-06, Documents de recherche from Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne

Abstract: We study optimal lockdown decisions taken by a policymaker facing a pandemic modelled according to the standard SIR deterministic model. The policymaker trades off the economic costs and the mortality record of the pandemic which depend on the severity and duration of the lockdown. We contrast the shortsightedness versus the farsightedness of the policymaker. Policy-related peaks and rebounds are characterized and explain why a zero-Covid policy is self-defeating. When the ICU constraint is present and the policymaker is shortsighed, there is a large intermediate range of 'values of life' for which the optimal lockdown consists in exactly saturating this constraint. A farsighted policy is not too severe so as to avoid a rebound. The shortest duration consistent with a given health goal is not the less costly. In contrast with the case of shortsightness, a farsighted policy taking into account the ICU constraint sets successive lockdowns of decreasing severity. We address the impact of vaccination on the optimal choice of a lockdown.

Keywords: Pandemic; lockdown policy; Covid-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D61 H51 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 60 pages
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea and nep-mac
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