A hidden Markov model for the detection of pure and mixed strategy play in games

Jason Shachat, J. Swarthout and Lijia Wei

No 2012-11, Experimental Economics Center Working Paper Series from Experimental Economics Center, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University

Abstract: We propose a statistical model to assess whether individuals strategically use mixed strategies in repeated games. We formulate a hidden Markov model in which the latent state space contains both pure and mixed strategies, and allows switching between these states. We apply the model to data from an experiment in which human subjects repeatedly play a normal form game against a computer that always follows its part of the unique mixed strategy Nash equilibrium profile. Estimated results show significant mixed strategy play and non-stationary dynamics. We also explore the ability of the model to forecast action choice.

Keywords: Mixed Strategy; Nash Equilibrium; Experiment; Hidden Markov Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C10 C72 C92 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26
Date: 2012-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp, nep-for and nep-gth
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http://excen.gsu.edu/workingpapers/GSU_EXCEN_WP_2012-11.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: A HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL FOR THE DETECTION OF PURE AND MIXED STRATEGY PLAY IN GAMES (2015)
Working Paper: A hidden Markov model for the detection of pure and mixed strategy play in games (2013)
Working Paper: A hidden Markov model for the detection of pure and mixed strategy play in games (2012)
Working Paper: A hidden Markov model for the detection of pure and mixed strategy play in games (2012)
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