Why has Britain fewer marginal seats than it used to?

Robert Hodgson and John Maloney
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Robert Hodgson: Department of Economics, University of Exeter
John Maloney: Department of Economics, University of Exeter

No 1105, Discussion Papers from University of Exeter, Department of Economics

Abstract: The decline in the number of marginal constituencies in Britain is often attributed to the increasing geographical polarisation of the electorate, with the North having become even more pro-Labour and the South even more pro-Conservative. We show that this has been more than neutralised by the weakening links between social class and voting behaviour, and explain the fall in the number of marginals by the party, not just personal, incumbency effects which tend to pile up in all but the most marginal seats.

Date: 2011
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-his and nep-pol
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