Crude Oil Price Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Turkey: Asymmetric Nonlinear ARDL Approach

Harun Öztürkler, Fatih Demir and Serhat Yılmaz
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Harun Öztürkler: Kırıkkale University, Department of Econometrics
Fatih Demir: Kırıkkale University, Department of Econometics
Serhat Yılmaz: Kırıkkale University, Department of Econometics

No 256, EY International Congress on Economics II (EYC2015), November 5-6, 2015, Ankara, Turkey from Ekonomik Yaklasim Association

Abstract: Increasing World population leads to an ever-rising energy need. For every individual in the economic activity and sector the most important energy resource is oil and oil products. Oil is also one of the most important items in the trade between countries. Turkey is a mostly energy dependent country, and this dependency is also the case for oil and oil products. As it is the case for those countries with significant energy dependency, oil price is important for economic stability in Turkey. The effects of oil price on macroeconomic variables are discussed frequently in the related literature. There are empirical studies in the literature investigating the differing effects of oil price rise and fall on economic activity. Some of these studies conclude that the effect is asymmetric. On the other hand, there is no consensus in the literature about the causes of asymmetric price pass-though. This study aims at determining the effects of oil price changes on the inflation in Turkey and whether price pass-through symmetric or asymmetric.

Keywords: Oil Price; Asymmetric Price Pass-Through; Asymmetric ARDL; Turkey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 C32 E31 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 2 pages
Date: 2015
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-cwa, nep-ene and nep-mac
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