Central Banks Voting Records, Financial Crisis and Future Monetary Policy

Roman Horvath and Júlia Jonasova
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Júlia Jonasova: Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nábreží 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic

No 2014/35, Working Papers IES from Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies

Abstract: We examine whether central banks’ voting records help predict the future course of monetary policy in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom, controlling for financial market expectations. Unlike previous research, first, we examine the period of the global financial crisis, characterized by a high level of uncertainty, and second, we examine the predictive power of voting records at longer time horizons, i.e., not only for the next monetary policy meeting. We find that voting records predict the policy rate set at the next meeting in all central banks that are recognized as independent. In some central banks, voting records are found—before, but not during, the financial crisis—to be informative about monetary policy even at more distant time horizons.

Keywords: voting records; financial crisis; central bank; monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D78 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 47 pages
Date: 2014-12, Revised 2014-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-cdm, nep-mac, nep-mon, nep-pol and nep-tra
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Related works:
Journal Article: Central banks' voting records, the financial crisis and future monetary policy (2015)
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