Simulated ML Estimation of Financial Agent-Based Models

Jiri Kukacka and Jozef Baruník

No 2016/07, Working Papers IES from Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies

Abstract: This paper proposes computational framework for empirical estimation of Financial Agent-Based Models (FABMs) that does not rely upon restrictive theoretical assumptions. We customise a recent methodology of the Non-Parametric Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimator (NPSMLE) based on kernel methods by Kristensen and Shin (2012) and elaborate its capability for FABMs estimation purposes. To start with, we apply the methodology to the popular and widely analysed model of Brock and Hommes (1998). We extensively test finite sample properties of the estimator via Monte Carlo simulations and show that important theoretical features of the estimator, the consistency and asymptotic efficiency, also hold in small samples for the model. We also verify smoothness of the simulated log-likelihood function and identification of parameters. Main empirical results of our analysis are the statistical insignificance of the switching coefficient but markedly significant belief parameters defining heterogeneous trading regimes with an absolute superiority of trend-following over contrarian strategies and a slight proportional dominance of fundamentalists over trend following chartists.

Keywords: Heterogeneous Agent Model; Heterogeneous Expectations; Behavioural Finance; Intensity of Choice; Switching; Non-Parametric Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimator (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C51 C63 D84 G02 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 103pages
Date: 2016-03, Revised 2016-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp and nep-ecm
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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