Smoking Czechs: Modeling Tobacco Consumption and Taxation

Karel Janda and Martin Strobl

No 2018/01, Working Papers IES from Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies

Abstract: We model the future tobacco consumption, size of smoking population and governmental tax revenues in the Czech Republic. The main assumption of our model states that smokers determine their future tobacco consumption behavior as adolescents. Further assumptions make the model applicable to the data from the Czech National Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction. Future teenage smoking rates and average consumption are the inputs to the model; consumption growth coeffcients for each age category are estimated using zero-inflated negative binomial regression. Several scenarios are built to model possible developments, including extreme cases. All our scenarios show that all model outcomes are going to grow until 2028 in a very similar pattern. In particular, the projected number of smokers in 2028 is by 4-8% higher than in 2013, the total daily tobacco consumption and tax revenue by 7-26%. This increase is induced by aging of large birth cohorts.

Keywords: smoking; tobacco; cigarettes; consumption; taxation; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D12 I12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37 pages
Date: 2018-01, Revised 2018-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur, nep-hea and nep-tra
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Related works:
Journal Article: Smoking Czechs: Modelling Tobacco Consumption and Taxation (2019)
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