ECB projections as a tool for understanding policy decisions

Paul Hubert

No 2013-04, Documents de Travail de l'OFCE from Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE)

Abstract: The European Central Bank publishes inflation projections quarterly. This paper aims at establishing whether they influence private forecasts and whether they may be considered as an enhanced means of implementing policy decisions by facilitating private agents’ information processing. We provide original evidence that ECB inflation projections do influence private inflation expectations. We also find that ECB projections give information about future ECB rate movements, and that the ECB rate has different effects if complemented or not with the publication of ECB projections. We conclude that ECB projections enable private agents to correctly interpret and predict policy decisions.

Keywords: Monetary policy; ECB; Private forecasts; Influence; Structural Var (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-cta, nep-eec, nep-for, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Journal Article: ECB Projections as a Tool for Understanding Policy Decisions (2015)
Working Paper: The effect of interest rate and communication shocks on private inflation expectations (2015)
Working Paper: ECB Projections as a tool for understanding policy decisions (2015)
Working Paper: ECB Projections as a tool for understanding policy decisions (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fce:doctra:1304

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