The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows

Simone Bertoli, Herbert Brücker and Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga

No 2013-03, Working Papers from FEDEA

Abstract: The analys is of how the economic crisis in Europe has reshaped migration flows faces two challenges: (i)the confounding influence of correlated changes in the attractiveness of alternative destinations, and (ii)the role of rapidly changing expectations about the evolution of the economic conditions in various countries. This paper addresses the first challenge by controlling for multilateral resistance to migration, and the second one by incorporating 10-year bond yields as an explanatory variable in a study of European bilateral migration flows to Germany between 2006 and 2012. We show that, while expectations and current economic conditions at origin are significant determinants of migration, diversion effects account for 78 percent of the observed increase in German gross migrationin ows.

Date: 2013-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur and nep-mig
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (53)

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Related works:
Working Paper: The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows (2013)
Working Paper: The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows (2013)
Working Paper: The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows (2013)
Working Paper: The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows (2013)
Working Paper: The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows (2013)
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