Oil Price Shocks, Income, and Democracy

Markus Brückner, Antonio Ciccone and Andrea Tesei

No 2013-18, Working Papers from FEDEA

Abstract: We examine the effect of oil price fluctuations on democratic institutions over the 1960-2007 period. We also exploit the very persistent response of income to oil price fluctuations to study the effect of persistent (oil price-driven) income shocks on democracy. Our results indicate that countries with greater net oil exports over GDP see improvements in democratic institutions following upturns in international oil prices. We estimate that a 1 percentage point increase in per capita GDP growth due to a positive oil price shock increases the Polity democracy score by around 0.2 percentage points on impact and by around 2 percentage points in the long run. The effect on the probability of a democratic transition is around 0.4 percentage points.

Date: 2013-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-pol
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://documentos.fedea.net/pubs/dt/2013/dt-2013-18.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Oil Price Shocks, Income, and Democracy (2012)
Working Paper: Oil Price Shocks, Income, and Democracy (2011)
Working Paper: Oil price shocks, income and democracy (2011)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2013-18

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from FEDEA
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Carmen Arias ().