How Does Demography affect Long-Term Care Expenditures Projections?

Adelina Comas-Herrera, Alessandra di Maio, Alessandro Pozzi, Concepció Patxot, Cristiano Gori, Heinz Rothgang, Joan Costa-Font, Linda Pickard and Raphael Wittenberg

No 231, Studies on the Spanish Economy from FEDEA

Abstract: This study examines the sensitivity of future long-term-care demand and expenditure estimates to "official" demographic projections in four selected European countries: Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom. It uses standardised methodology in the form of a macro-simulation exercise and finds evidence for significant differences in assumptions about demographic change and its effect on the demand for long-term care, and on relative and absolute long-term care expenditure. It concludes that mortality-rate assumptions can have a considerable influence on welfare policy planning. Relative dispersion between country-specific and Eurostat official estimates was found to be higher for the United Kingdom and Germany than for Italy and Spain, suggesting that demographic projections had a greater influence in those countries.

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