Do Expert Experience and Characteristics Affect Inflation Forecasts?

Jonathan Benchimol, Makram El-Shagi and Yossi Saadon

No 2020/6, CFDS Discussion Paper Series from Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China

Abstract: Each person's characteristics may influence that person's behaviors and their outcomes. We build and use a new database to estimate experts' performance and boldness based on their experience and characteristics. We classify experts providing inflation forecasts based on their education, experience, gender, and environment. We provide alternative interpretations of factors affecting experts' inflation forecasting performance, boldness, and pessimism by linking behavioral economics, the economics of education, and forecasting literature. An expert with previous experience at a central bank appears to have a lower propensity for predicting deflation.

Keywords: expert forecast; behavioral economics; survival analysis; panel estimation; global financial crisis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 C81 C91 D91 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mon
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http://cfds.henuecon.education/images/dpaper/WP_6_2020_forecasters.pdf First version, 2020 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Do expert experience and characteristics affect inflation forecasts? (2022)
Working Paper: Do expert experience and characteristics affect inflation forecasts? (2022)
Working Paper: Do Expert Experience and Characteristics Affect Inflation Forecasts? (2020)
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