Switching Volatility in a Nonlinear Open Economy

Jonathan Benchimol and Sergey Ivashchenko
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Sergey Ivashchenko: Russian Academy of Sciences (IREP), Financial Research Institute, and Saint-Petersburg State University, Saint Petersburg, Russia

No 2020/8, CFDS Discussion Paper Series from Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China

Abstract: Uncertainty about an economy's regime can change drastically around a crisis. An imported crisis such as the global financial crisis in the euro area highlights the effect of foreign shocks. Estimating an open-economy nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the euro area and the United States including Markov-switching volatility shocks, we show that these shocks were significant during the global financial crisis compared with periods of calm. We describe how US shocks from both the real economy and financial markets affected the euro area economy and how bond reallocation occurred between short- and long-term maturities during the global financial crisis. Importantly, the estimated nonlinearities when domestic and foreign financial markets influence the economy, should not be neglected. The nonlinear behavior of market-related variables highlights the importance of higher-order estimation for providing additional interpretations to policymakers.

Keywords: DSGE; Volatility Shocks; Markov Switching; Open Economy; Financial Crisis; Nonlinearities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 E32 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge, nep-eec, nep-mac, nep-opm and nep-ore
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http://cfds.henuecon.education/images/dpaper/WP_8_2020_switching-volatility.pdf First version, 2020 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Switching volatility in a nonlinear open economy (2021)
Working Paper: Switching volatility in a nonlinear open economy (2021)
Working Paper: Switching Volatility in a Nonlinear Open Economy (2020)
Working Paper: Switching Volatility in a Nonlinear Open Economy (2020)
Working Paper: Switching Volatility in a Nonlinear Open Economy (2020)
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