Expertise in the Future Use of Generic Technologies

Osmo Kuusi

No 59, Research Reports from VATT Institute for Economic Research

Abstract: In 1990s there has been a "boom" of extensive technology foresight studies based on the use of the Delphi method. This study examines critically e.g. national foresight studies made in Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom and Austria. The study suggests that the epistemic paradigm of the general theory of consistency (GTC), presented in the book, can provide working epistemic foundations for futures studies and for technology foresight Delphi studies in special. Results of the national foresight exercises are examined with an epistemic utility model based on GTC. The epistemic utility is a modification of the traditional utility concept of investment theory. New conceptual tools are used for the analysis of the expertise and information policies of different expert groups in technology Delphi studies. Empirical background of discussion are three technology Delphi studies made by the author. They concerned use of computer based information services of households, new biotechnology and the material technology. Based on these studies a special interpretation of the Delphi method is provided: the Argument Delphi.

Keywords: technology foresight, Delphi, futures, innovation, argumentation, Economic growth, Taloudellinen kasvu, Labor market and policies promoting economic growth, Työmarkkinat ja kasvua tukeva politiikka, D800 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: General, O300 - Technological Change; Research and Development: General, (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999
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