Does Regression Discontinuity Design Work? Evidence from Random Election Outcomes

Ari Hyytinen, Jaakko Meriläinen, Tuukka Saarimaa, Otto Toivanen and Janne Tukiainen

No 59, Working Papers from VATT Institute for Economic Research

Abstract: We use elections data in which a large number of ties in vote counts between candidates are resolved via lottery. We benchmark non-experimental RDD estimates of personal incumbency advantage against the estimate produced by this experiment that takes place exactly at the cutoff. The experimental estimate suggests that there is no personal incumbency advantage. In contrast, standard local linear RDD estimates suggest a moderate and statistically significant effect. Bias-correction and undersmoothing procedures however bring the RDD estimate(s) in line with the experimental estimate. Therefore, careful implementation of RDD can meet the replication standard in the context of close elections. 'This version (September 21, 2015) replaces the November 20, 2014 version.'

Keywords: Elections, experiment, incumbency advantage, regression discontinuity design, Local public economics, Kunnallistalous, Effectiveness of public services, Julkisten palvelujen vaikuttavuus, C210 - Econometric Methods: Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models, C520 - Model Evaluation and Testing, D720 - Economic Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior, (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm and nep-pol
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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