Model uncertainty and the deterrent effect of capital punishment

Ethan Cohen-Cole (), Steven Durlauf, Jeffrey Fagan and Daniel Nagin

No QAU07-3, Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Abstract: The reintroduction of capital punishment after the end of the Supreme Court moratorium has permitted researchers to employ state level heterogeneity in the use of capital punishment to study deterrent effects. However, no scholarly consensus exists as to their magnitude. A key reason this has occurred is that the use of alternative models across studies produces differing estimates of the deterrent effect. Because differences across models are not well motivated by theory, the deterrence literature is plagued by model uncertainty. We argue that the analysis of deterrent effects should explicitly recognize the presence of model uncertainty in drawing inferences. We describe methods for addressing model uncertainty and apply them to understand the disparate findings between two major studies in the deterrence literature, finding that evidence of deterrent effects appears, while not nonexistent, is weak.

Keywords: Capital; punishment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Model Uncertainty and the Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment (2008)
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