Interest Rate Forecasts in Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Periods

Nelson Oliver and Mehmet Pasaogullari

Economic Commentary, 2015, issue May

Abstract: Monetary policy has been conducted with a different set of tools since the fi nancial crisis, and we investigate whether the change has affected the accuracy of professionals? interest-rate forecasts. We analyze the accuracy of federal funds rate and nominal Treasury yield forecasts in the periods before and after the introduction of new policy tools and find that,in general, forecast accuracy improved in the latter policy period.

Date: 2015
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