Oil prices: backward to the future?

Joseph Haubrich, Patrick Higgins and Janet Miller

Economic Commentary, 2004, issue Dec

Abstract: A useful first guess about the future spot price of a commodity is usually found in its current futures price. But it doesn?t work that way when the commodity in question is oil. This Commentary explains why the characteristics of oil, particularly the value it can offer its owner by remaining in the ground, cloud the information that oil futures prices give about future oil prices.

Keywords: Petroleum industry and trade; Futures (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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