Does the yield curve signal recession?

Joseph Haubrich

Economic Commentary, 2006, issue Apr

Abstract: Experience has taught economic forecasters to expect a recession when the yield on short-term Treasury securities rises above the yield on longer-term securities - a situation known as a yield-curve inversion. But some economists suspect the yield curve might not be as reliable a predictor of output growth as it used to be.

Keywords: Interest rates; Recessions; Economic forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-20060415

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