Unemployment Flows, Participation, and the Natural Rate for Turkey

Gonul Sengul and Murat Tasci

No 1422, Working Papers (Old Series) from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Abstract: This paper measures flow rates into and out of unemployment for Turkey and uses them to estimate the unemployment rate trend, that is, the unemployment rate to which the economy converges in the long run. In doing so, the paper explores the role of labor force participation in determining the unemployment rate trend. We find an inverse V-shaped pattern for Turkey?s unemployment rate trend over time, currently between 8.5 percent and 9 percent, with an increasing labor market turnover. We also find that allowing an explicit role for participation changes the results substantially, initially reducing the ?natural? rate but getting closer to the baseline over time. Finally, we show that this parsimonious model can be used to forecast unemployment in Turkey with relative ease and accuracy.

Keywords: unemployment; unemployment flows; labor force participation; Turkey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 E32 J64 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 46 pages
Date: 2014-10-27
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-cwa, nep-lab, nep-lma and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-201422 Persistent link
https://www.clevelandfed.org/-/media/project/cleve ... e-for-turkey-pdf.pdf Full text (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Unemployment Flows, Participation and the Natural Rate for Turkey (2014)
Working Paper: Unemployment Flows, Participation and the Natural Rate for Turkey (2014)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1422

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from

DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-201422

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers (Old Series) from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by 4D Library ().