Advance Layoff Notices and Aggregate Job Loss

Pawel Krolikowski and Kurt Lunsford

No 20-03R, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Abstract: We collect data from Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act notices and establish their usefulness as an indicator of aggregate job loss. The number of workers affected by WARN notices ("WARN layoffs") leads state-level initial unemployment insurance claims, and changes in the unemployment rate and private employment. WARN layoffs move closely with aggregate layoffs from Mass Layoff Statistics and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, but are timelier and cover a longer sample. In a vector autoregression, changes in WARN layoffs lead unemployment rate changes and job separations. Finally, they improve pseudo real-time forecasts of the unemployment rate. Data associated with this paper are available at openICPSR: https://doi.org/10.3886/E155161

Keywords: WARN Act; mass layoffs; unemployment; dynamic factor models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E24 E27 J63 J65 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 72
Date: 2020-01-31, Revised 2022-02-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-lab, nep-law and nep-mac
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Journal Article: Advance layoff notices and aggregate job loss (2024)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedcwq:87416

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DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202003r

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