EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

News and Uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey Evidence and Short-Run Economic Impact

Alexander Dietrich, Keith Kuester, Gernot Müller and Raphael Schoenle

No 20-12R, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Abstract: A tailor-made survey documents consumer perceptions of the U.S. economy’s response to a large shock: the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey ran at a daily frequency between March 2020 and July 2021. Consumer perceptions regarding output and inflation react rapidly. Uncertainty is pervasive. A business-cycle model calibrated to the consumer views provides an interpretation. The rise in household uncertainty amplifies the pandemic recession by a factor of three. Different perceptions about monetary policy can explain why consumers and professional forecasters agree on the recessionary impact, but have sharply divergent views about inflation.

Keywords: consumer expectations; survey; COVID-19; large shock; monetary policy; uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C83 E43 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 45
Date: 2020-04-09, Revised 2021-12-22
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-dge, nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-ore
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (37)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202012r Full Text (text/html)

Related works:
Journal Article: News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact (2022) Downloads
Working Paper: News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact (2021) Downloads
Working Paper: News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact (2020) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedcwq:87736

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from

DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202012r

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by 4D Library ().

 
Page updated 2025-03-30
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwq:87736