 Is there a stable relationship between capacity utilization and inflation?Chih-Ping Chang and Kenneth M. Emery Economic and Financial Policy Review, 1997, issue Q I, 14-20 Abstract: Many policymakers and financial market participants use the Federal Reserve's industrial capacity utilization rate as an indicator of future changes in inflation. During the past few years, however, the usefulness of the utilization rate as an inflation indicator has come under scrutiny. ; In this article, Kenneth Emery and Chih-Ping Chang examine capacity utilization's power to predict changes in inflation, with a focus on whether the relationship is stable over time. They find that while there was a positive forecasting relationship between capacity utilization and changes in consumer price inflation before 1983, this relationship has substantially weakened since the end of 1982. In fact, after 1982 there is no evidence that high capacity utilization rates predict increases in consumer price inflation. Although the results are similar for changes in producer price inflation, the deterioration in the relationship is not as severe. So there is still some evidence that, after 1982, capacity utilization helps to predict changes in producer price inflation. Keywords: Industrial capacity; Inflation (Finance) (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1997:i:qi:p:14-20 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article More articles in Economic and Financial Policy Review from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Contact information at EDIRC. |
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