Does the US current account show a symmetric behavior over the business cycle?
Roberto Duncan
No 253, Globalization Institute Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Abstract:
Traditionally, the literature that attempts to explain the link between the current account and output finds a linear negative relationship (e.g., Backus et al., 1995). Using nonparametric regressions, we find a robust U-shaped relationship between the U.S. current account and the GDP cycle. When output is above (below) its trend the current account and detrended output are positively (negatively) correlated. We argue that this nonlinearity might be caused by persistent productivity shocks coupled with uncertainty shocks about future productivity.
JEL-codes: E3 F3 F4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 33 pages
Date: 2015-09-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-opm
Note: Published as: Duncan, Roberto (2016), "Does the US Current Account Show a Symmetric Behavior over the Business Cycle?" International Review of Economics & Finance 41: 202-219.
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:
Downloads: (external link)
https://www.dallasfed.org/-/media/documents/resear ... papers/2015/0253.pdf Full text (application/pdf)
Related works:
Journal Article: Does the US current account show a symmetric behavior over the business cycle? (2016) 
Working Paper: Does the US Current Account Show a Symmetric Behavior over the Business Cycle? (2015) 
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:feddgw:253
DOI: 10.24149/gwp253
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Globalization Institute Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Amy Chapman ().