Disagreement about U.S. and Euro-Area Inflation Forecasts

Reuven Glick and Noah Kouchekinia

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2021, vol. 2021, issue 08, 01-05

Abstract: Disagreement among economic forecasters about the outlook for inflation in both the United States and the euro area has increased since the onset of the pandemic. The nature of these forecast differences can provide insights into the inflation risks that lie ahead. Many forecasters initially expected substantially lower inflation over the next year but subsequently raised their expectations as economic activity began to improve. In contrast, changes in expectations and disagreement about longer-term inflation have been relatively subdued and suggest a balanced likelihood between higher and lower inflation.

Keywords: COVID-19; inflation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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