Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model

Mark Bognanni, Douglas Hanley, Daniel Kolliner () and Kurt Mitman

No 2020-091, Finance and Economics Discussion Series from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: Economic analysis of effective policies for managing epidemics requires an integrated economic and epidemiological approach. We develop and estimate a spatial, micro-founded model of the joint evolution of economic variables and the spread of an epidemic. We empirically discipline the model using new U.S. county-level data on health, mobility, employment outcomes, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) at a daily frequency. Absent policy or medical interventions, the model predicts an initial period of exponential growth in new cases, followed by a protracted period of roughly constant case levels and reduced economic activity. Nevertheless, if vaccine development proved impossible, and suppression cannot entirely eradicate the disease, a utilitarian policymaker cannot improve significantly over the laissez-faire equilibrium by using lockdowns. Conversely, if a vaccine will arrive within two years, NPIs can improve upon the laissez-faire outcome by dramatically decreasing the number of infectious agents and keeping infections low until vaccine arrival. Mitigation measures that reduce viral transmission (e.g., mask-wearing) both reduce the virus's spread and increase economic activity.

Keywords: Epidemics; Covid-19; Econ-sir; Economic policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E60 I10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 59 p.
Date: 2020-10-23
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

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https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2020091pap.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model (2020)
Working Paper: Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2020-91

DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2020.091

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